For many years, things have been somewhat more likely to end up looking worse than previously thought than to end up looking better. According to a study released today (Study Sheds Light on Previous Thought), however, the preponderance of things ending up looking worse than previously thought is greater than previously thought and is increasing.

Things that, according to a Google News Archives search on the exact phrase, were or might have been “better than previously thought” in 2010 to date, according to news reports:

  • World energy demand
  • David Hoffman and Cheryle Jackson, in the Illinois primary
  • How well planes can cope with small amounts of ash in the air
  • Canada’s labour market
  • Consumer spending in Japan
  • The outlook for global economic growth
  • The UK economy
  • The US economy
  • The Barbados hockey team
  • The Oregon Ducks
  • How well patients tolerate cancer drugs blocking more than one target
  • How well beta interferon works against MS, for patients who respond to it

Things that, according to a Google News Archives search on the exact phrase, were or might have been “worse than previously thought” in 2010 to date, according to news reports:

  • The magnitude of the Gulf of Mexico oil leak
  • The danger posed by the Gulf oil spill to the US food supply
  • Greece’s debt crisis
  • The side effects of statin drugs
  • Total US job losses during the current recession
  • Ireland’s fiscal crisis
  • California budget numbers
  • The European economy
  • Job losses in Arizona
  • The US economy
  • Destruction from Yemen’s northern war
  • The impact of climate change
  • New York State’s budget hole
  • Britain’s economic downturn
  • The impact of childhood obesity on chronic diseases and life expectancy
  • Eric Abidal’s torn leg muscle
  • Canadian debt
  • The danger from texting while driving [related link]
  • The New Jersey budget crisis
  • Soil and creek contamination from the Oeser Co. wood treatment plant

Before the 1970s, previous thought was rarely challenged. For most of the twentieth century, in fact, it was rarely reported that things were or might be “better than previously thought” or “worse than previously thought.”

On only three occasions between 1900 and 1970 [Source:Google News Archives] did news reports indicate an inaccuracy of previous thought about something in such precise terms. These things were the 1929 English water famine (worse, 1929), treasury conditions (better, 1937), and apple prospects in three Washington State counties after a spring freeze (better, 1965).

Beginning in the 1970s, however, “worse than previously thought” began to appear regularly in the press. By the 1990s, “better than previously thought” had also caught on, and by 2005, “better than previously thought” had become more frequent than “worse than previously thought,” prompting several researchers to project a long-lasting reversal in the direction of error of previous thought.

The study released today, however, shows that between 2005 and 2010, there was a complete reversal of the reversal. The preponderance of “worse than previously thought” over “better” is now the strongest in well over a decade. Adding to the importance of this result is the fact (apparent in the lists above) that less serious things are being noted as “better than previously thought,” while more serious things are noted as “worse.”