- Description of the data
This information source would compare the projected Presidential election winners nine months, six months, three months, and one month before the election with the actual candidate who wins the presidency. The website or data-bank would go back to the previous 50 years of presidential elections and conclude whether the predicted polls depicted who actually won. The user would be able to compare data from four different, old, and well-respected newspapers: The New York Times, The Washington Post, The New Hampshire Gazette, and the Chicago Tribune.
- Why the data is interesting
This data is interesting for several different reasons. Firstly, it can show the accuracy of polling and predictions leading up to political elections. Secondly, the actual Presidential candidates and their campaigns can see the trend of polling accuracy over the ages and apply it to their own operations if necessary. Lastly, it is interesting for the general American public and anyone interested in United States government to see that every single vote makes a difference and how public opinion can change in a short period of time.
- How we can obtain the data
Information about polling and predictions from recent elections are more easily accessible through the internet than the data dating back from before the creation of the internet. This information can still be found through dated newspapers, magazines, cataloged polling areas that keep that information. Although this may seem like a daunting task, it would be easy to obtain if the researcher had open access to a newspaper data-bank that had articles about this sort of information.
- What specific questions the data will/can answer
1) Which candidate has the best chance of winning for the upcoming election based on the results?
2) How accurate are voting polls based on their specific time frame?
3) Has the accuracy of voting polls increased or decreased over the past 50 years?
4) What historical/ political event caused a drastic change in American public opinion to have a specific candidate win the presidency?
…and many more. This data is versatile and can show a lot about polling, predictions, elections and public opinion in general.
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